The Zen of Statistics:
Why more is sometimes less.

In most sports, more is more. In volleyball, sometimes more is less.

Consider the subject of kills. You would think that a team with more kills was a better team than one with less kills. However, consider two teams:

Team A: wins most of its matches in three games by lopsided scores.

Team B: wins half its matches and usually goes four games, with games being evenly decided.

Team B will have more kills and more kills/game than Team A, just the opposite of what you'd expect. Kills are not always points, they can be side-outs. A match with many changes of service will produce more kills than a match where one (or both) teams just go on long serving streaks.

What about digs? Is more better? Well it often is, because more digs probably means fewer kills by your opponents. But - a team with a poor block, all things being equal, will have more digs than a team with a killer block.

Here's another zen dynamic. Individual leaders can often appear on teams with poor records. If your team has only one OH, you go to her. She has killer stats. But isn't it better if your team has two or three big bangers, even with lower stats? CU is going to be better with Neilson, Taskey and a big MB sharing the duties than it was when all we had was Sarah Lodge going 100 mph straight into the other teams block.

Of course, there is a limit to this. If you're offered a choice of two outside hitters, one averaging 4 kills a game and other 1.2, of course you're going to pick the big banger.

What's this all about? Volleyball is unique among major sports in having a limit on point totals (tennis would be another example). All you can score is 15 points (usually). If you clobber someone you may score 50 points in a match, and the absolute maximum is 3x15+2x13= 71 (again, usually). This cap means that pushing in one dimension reduces your stats in another.

What's the solution for real evaluation? I've been thinking about various ratios that would compare your performance to your opponents (your blocks+digs related to their attacks, for example). Stay tuned. When I work this out, I'll post it.